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Quantum Decryption of RSA Is Much Closer Than Expected

For decades, the quantum threat to RSA and ECC encryption has been tied to Shor’s algorithm and the assumption that we would need million-qubit quantum computers to make it practical. A newly announced algorithm challenges that assumption and suggests the breaking point could arrive far sooner than expected.

Encryption

There’s a new contender in quantum cryptanalysis. The Jesse-Victor-Gharabaghi (JVG) quantum decryption algorithm is faster and requires fewer quantum resources than Shor’s algorithm.

Breaking business and the internet has long been the accepted result of combining quantum computers and Shor’s algorithm to solve the factorization problem employed by Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA) and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). But Shor’s algorithm requires a relatively large quantum computer (comprising an estimated one million qubits); and that is still believed to be at least a decade away.

This time gap has allowed industry to believe it has time to undertake the massive task of finding and upgrading its current pre-quantum cryptography with the post quantum cryptography (PQC) recommended by NIST. This is already necessary because nation state and financially motivated criminal gangs have been, and are, stealing and storing information that they will decrypt in the future (harvest now, decrypt later). But that decryption might be possible sooner than we thought.

A new algorithm, the JVG algorithm, completely upends existing time projections. The Advanced Quantum Technologies Institute (AQTI) announced March 2, 2026, “The JVG algorithm requires thousand-fold less quantum computer resources, such as qubits and quantum gates. Research extrapolations suggest it will require less than 5,000 qubits to break encryption methods used in RSA and ECC.” 

An associated research paper written by professor Jesse Van Griensven, claims, “Projection for RSA-2048 indicates that the JVG algorithm significantly outperforms Shor’s approach, requiring a projected quantum runtime of 11 hours for a factorization under identical scaling assumptions. The results from these evaluations support JVG as a more hardware-compatible and robust noise-tolerant substitute for Shor’s framework.”

Van Griensven is the J in JVG. V is Victor Oliveira Santos, and G is Bahram Gharabaghi – the three primary authors of JVG. “Jesse Van Griensven has built an incredible algorithm that will change everything we know on cybersecurity,” comments Nir (Benda) Ben-David, founder and CEO at Israel-based Qombat Ltd.

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JVG takes a different approach to Shor. Both are hybrid, using classical computers for some of the work, and quantum where necessary. JVG offloads significantly more of the workload to classical computing than Shor. For example, while Shor performs modular exponentiation by quantum, JVG does it by classical. 

Both use quantum for the frequency analysis part. But while Shor uses quantum fourier transform (QFT) for the process, JVG uses quantum number theoretic transform (QNTT), which is more noise tolerant and requires fewer qubits. JVG’s approach is to reduce the load on quantum and simultaneously make its use more efficient.

“Relative to the full Shor factoring pipeline for the same tested instances, the total quantum gate count is reduced by more than 99% in the JVG approach,” claims the paper.

It is important to note that Shor’s algorithm has been tested and analyzed for many years, while JVG is very new and has not been poked and prodded to the same extent. There is an element of apples and oranges when comparing the two algorithms, so, it is best to consider the current announcement as claims. 

Claims might not prove fully correct. But you don’t stand in front of a man with a gun simply because he might miss. You take evasive action. In this case, that evasive action requires a new urgency in the migration to PQC.

The fastest path to safety is crypto‑ agility, the ability to replace cryptographic methods without rebuilding entire systems, combined with early deployment of quantum-resistant standards across networks, devices, and software supply chains.

Three steps are recommended. Identify where public-key systems are used (and there are many of them); require clear post‑quantum roadmaps from vendors and service providers (especially for products with long replacement cycles); and deploy crypto-agile designs so that new PQC can be implemented as and when necessary.

Van Griensven adds, “The lesson from JVG is that the timeline is accelerating not only because hardware advances, but also because algorithms improve. That is why post-quantum upgrades must be treated as urgent infrastructure work.”

Related: NIST’s Quantum Breakthrough: Single Photons Produced on a Chip

Related: Cyber Insights: Quantum and the Threat to Encryption

Related: QuSecure Banks $28M Series A for Post-Quantum Cryptography Tech

Related: Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards Officially Announced by NIST – a History and Explanation

Written By

Kevin Townsend is a Senior Contributor at SecurityWeek. He has been writing about high tech issues since before the birth of Microsoft. For the last 15 years he has specialized in information security; and has had many thousands of articles published in dozens of different magazines – from The Times and the Financial Times to current and long-gone computer magazines.

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